By Ward Peck

Editor

    Cape Elizabeth Town Planner Maureen O’Meara
presented the town’s School Board finance committee with a proposal to
update school enrollment forecasts used in developing the town’s
comprehensive plan as well as budget deliberations within the school
department.

    O’Meara said the town hopes to forecast school
enrollment out to the year 2020 in order to reduce the frequency of
comprehensive plan updates in the future. Yet the current model,
prepared by the firm Planning Decisions, Inc. of South Portland in 2000
and updated in 2003 has already diverged significantly from actual
school enrollment in the past few years. That variance is expected to
grow larger as the forecasts look farther into the future.

    O’Meara explained that the “best fit” methodology
used by many suburban communities in Southern Maine does not seem to
fit Cape Elizabeth very well and a new model is needed to take into
account the town’s unique growth pattern.

    O’Meara described Cape Elizabeth as a “mature”
suburban community that is now several decades past the high growth
rates experienced by other suburban communities in the more recent past
and present. The growth Cape Elizabeth experienced has made the town
more densely populated than many of its suburban neighbors with little
developable land left for new home starts. The “best fit” model,
according to O’Meara, places a disproportionate emphasis on the number
of building permits to forecast growth in Cape Elizabeth. The model
predicts a low number of building permits translates into relatively
slower growth in the school age population.

    But school enrollment has not followed the trend documented by the model.

    School budget documents from this past year’s budget
debate show the average variance between forecast models and actual
enrollment over the past five school years at 46 more actual students
than predicted. While the variance represents a small fraction of the
total student body, it still represents roughly two classrooms worth of
students with per-pupil spending in Cape school at roughly $9,000.

    In addition, the trends predicted school enrollment
was to have peaked in the 2004-2005 school year. In reality, school
enrollment continued to increase during the following two school years.
Enrollment numbers presented to the school finance committee do show a
decrease in the current school year (2006-2007) as well a predicted
decrease in the next year, but higher enrollment than forecast.

    In an attempt to account for the disparity, O’Meara
and School Supt. Alan Hawkins surveyed a sample of existing home sales
from a recent 12-month period.

    In the “Public Facilities” section of the draft
comprehensive plan (which can be found on the town’s website), O’Meara
asks, “As the Cape Elizabeth population ages, the indication is that
the number of empty nester households is increasing. Are these empty
nesters now making the choice to sell their single family homes, with
new families the likely buyers, or are home sales’ household size
neutral?”

    According to O’Meara, the survey found, “…the 158
homes from the September 2004-2005 sample set…compared school age
children from these addresses before and after the sale. Prior to the
sale, 30 school age children lived in these homes. After the sale, 116
school age children lived in these homes.”

    The preliminary conclusion of the study, “suggests
that in-migration has a greater impact on school population than new
construction.”

    But in her presentation to the school board finance
committee, O’Meara suggested a more rigorous methodology be developed
by a group such as Planning Decisions in order to develop an accurate
and credible update to the school enrollment forecasts.

    While the committee found the argument for a new
forecast model persuasive, it was unclear how such a study would be
funded. Hawkins seemed to suggest the school system did not have any
money to fund the project.

    It was suggested the school administration would
approach their municipal counterparts to share the cost since both
would be using the data.

    Another obstacle to applying a new formula is
timing. The draft comprehensive plan is expected to be submitted to the
Town Council by the end of February. But O’Meara said the council is
not expected to open deliberations on the draft until several months
later. She said the updated finding could be included if they were
finalized before the council began its deliberations.